When Earth emits the same amount of energy as it absorbs, its energy budget is in balance, and its average temperature remains stable. Jump to A Balance
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Culture, Climate Science & Education
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Principle One: The Sun is Primary
The Cultural Value is Gratitude
Episode One: Coyote Stories
Episode 1: Coyote Stories
Transcript with Description of Visuals
Audio |
Visual |
---|---|
Voice Over in Alyssa Pretty On Top’s voice: |
Snow covered field with a single old tree two hundred yards away. A single animal track crosses the field and heads toward the tree. |
Voice Over continues: |
Snowy mountain canyon with high cliffs on both sides and conifers in the bottom and on the mountain sides. |
My name is Alyssa Pretty On Top, and I want to tell you about the creation stories of our People. These are Coyote stories. They are sacred stories, passed down for thousand of years. |
Children, including Alyssa, are moving around in an almost dance-like way. They dressed mostly in ribbon dresses and ribbon shirts and moccasins. Some have masks on, others are dressed as animals. |
And just as countless generations have done, we are coming together on this snowy winter evening for dinner and a night of storytelling. |
In the large room of the Longhouse the people, children and some adults, are seated in a large circle. At the far side the elders are seated, and in front of them on the floor are four large buffalo robes. |
I am excited to hear my elders tell some of the stories again. I have waited all year. |
Alyssa Pretty On Top and her grandfather are seated. Her grandfather is telling a story and motioning with his hands as he speaks. |
Alyssa’s Grandfather: |
Alyssa’s grandfather is telling the story. |
Alyssa’s Voice Over continues: |
A girl with an animal mask is acting out a character in one of the stories, marching and moving her hands like paws, pantomiming a part of the story. Other children, boys and girls are watching and acting out their parts of the story. |
A voice of one of the young people acting in a Coyote story being told: |
Children laughing. |
Alyssa’s Voice Over continues: |
Alyssa’s grandfather telling part of a story. A group of young children lying on the buffalo robes stare up at Alyssa’s grandfather. |
Alyssa’s Grandfather: |
Alyssa’s grandfather talking. |
Alyssa’s Voice Over continues: |
A girl reading a Coyote Story from a storybook to a dozen or so kids seated on the buffalo robes. |
Alyssa’s Grandfather telling one of the stories: |
Alyssa’s grandfather talking. |
Alyssa’s Voice Over continues: |
The rotating Earth as seen from space, the Sun shining in the distance. Slowly, the Sun moves behind the Earth and the day changes to night and cities light up. |
Chaney Bell, a cultural leader: |
Chaney Bell talking to the group. |
Alyssa’s Voice Over continues: |
Children lying on buffalo robes, listening to Alyssa’s grandfather. Girls with acting out a story. |
Alyssa’s Grandfather telling one of the stories: |
Alyssa’s grandfather talking. Children listening. |
Sound of wind blowing through trees. |
Snow falling through bare branches. Tall snow covered mountains. |
|
The following credits in white text over a black background: |
Principle 1
What You Need to Know About Principle 1: The Sun is Primary
This principle is about the Earth’s energy balance and how the sun affects the earth. The role of solar energy — how the atmosphere first filters sunlight when it meets the earth, how it is absorbed by the land and water surfaces, turned into infrared heat that radiates from the surface back into space — is important for understanding the reason we have seasons, the cause of ice ages, and the “greenhouse effect” whereby some of the outgoing infrared heat is captured by certain atmospheric gases, thereby warming the atmosphere, making life on Earth possible.
click the topics to learn what you need to know about Principle 2
- Warming the Planet
Sunlight reaching the Earth heats the land, ocean, and atmosphere. Some of that sunlight is reflected back to space by the surface, clouds, and ice. Much of the sunlight that reaches Earth is absorbed and warms the planet. Jump to Warming the Planet
- A Balance
- The Reasons for the Seasons
The tilt of Earth’s axis relative to its orbit around the Sun results in predictable changes in the duration of daylight and the amount of sunlight received at any latitude throughout a year. These changes cause the annual cycle of seasons and associated temperature changes. Jump to The Reason for the Seasons
- Ice Ages
Gradual changes in Earth’s rotation and orbit around the Sun change the intensity of sunlight received in our planet’s polar and equatorial regions. For at least the last 1 million years, these changes occurred in 100,000-year cycles that produced ice ages and the shorter warm periods between them. Jump to The Reason for the Ice Ages
- Changes in the Sun’s Energy Output?
A significant increase or decrease in the Sun’s energy output would cause Earth to warm or cool. Satellite measurements taken over the past 30 years show that the Sun’s energy output has changed only slightly and in both directions. These changes in the Sun’s energy are thought to be too small to be the cause of the recent warming observed on Earth. Jump to In the Sun’s Energy Output
Principle 1a
Warming the Planet
The energy that drives the climate system and that makes life possible on earth comes from the Sun.
When the Sun's energy reaches the Earth, it does so as shortwave radiation. That shortwave radiation is partially absorbed by land, water, and the atmosphere, the rest is reflected back into space. Read more…
Warming the Planet
The energy that drives the climate system and that makes life possible on earth comes from the Sun.
When the Sun's energy reaches the Earth as shortwave radiation. That shortwave radiation is partially absorbed by land, water, and the atmosphere, the rest is reflected back into space.
A key thing to remember is that the energy absorbed by the earth is converted into heat. That heat makes Earth habitable. It radiates back out into the atmosphere as longwave radiation.
The diagrams below show the amount of energy absorbed and reflected in watts per square meter.
click images to enlarge
Climate and Earth’s Energy Budget
by Rebecca Lindsey
January 14, 2009
Source: NASA Earth Observatory: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/
The Earth’s climate is powered by solar energy—it’s powered by the sun. Sunlight drives photosynthesis, fuels evaporation, melts snow and ice, and warms the Earth.
Solar power drives Earth’s climate. Energy from the Sun heats the surface, warms the atmosphere, and powers the ocean currents. (Astronaut photograph ISS015-E-10469, courtesy NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.)
But the Sun doesn’t heat the Earth evenly. Because the Earth is a sphere, the Sun heats the equator region more than the polar regions. The atmosphere and ocean then work non-stop to even-out solar heating imbalances. They do it through the evaporation of surface water, convection, rainfall, winds, and ocean circulation. Scientists call the circulation of the atmosphere and ocean the Earth’s heat engine because it moves heat around the globe.
The climate’s heat engine must not only redistribute solar heat from the equator toward the poles, but also from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere back into space. Otherwise, Earth would endlessly heat up. Earth’s temperature doesn’t infinitely rise because the surface and the atmosphere are simultaneously radiating heat to space. This net flow of energy into and out of the Earth system is Earth’s energy budget.
When the flow of incoming solar energy is balanced by an equal flow of heat to space, Earth is in “radiative equilibrium”, and global temperature is relatively stable. Anything that increases or decreases the amount of incoming or outgoing energy disturbs Earth’s radiative equilibrium; global temperatures rise or fall in response.
Incoming Sunlight
All matter in the universe that has a temperature above absolute zero (the temperature at which all atomic or molecular motion stops) radiates energy across a range of wavelengths.
The surface of the Sun has a temperature of about 5,500 degrees Celsius, or about 10,000 degrees Fahrenheit. At that temperature, most of the energy the Sun radiates is visible and near-infrared light.
At Earth’s average distance from the Sun (about 150 million kilometers), the average intensity of solar energy reaching the top of the atmosphere directly facing the Sun is about 1,360 watts per square meter, according to measurements made by the most recent NASA satellite missions. This amount of power is known as the total solar irradiance.
A watt is measurement of power, or the amount of energy that something generates or uses over time. How much power is 1,360 watts? An incandescent light bulb uses anywhere from 40 to 100 watts. A microwave uses about 1000 watts. If for just one hour, you could capture and re-use all the solar energy arriving over a single square meter at the top of the atmosphere directly facing the Sun—an area no wider than an adult’s outstretched arm span—you would have enough to run a refrigerator all day.
The total solar irradiance is the maximum possible power that the Sun can deliver to a planet at Earth’s average distance from the Sun; basic geometry limits the actual solar energy intercepted by Earth. Only half the Earth is ever lit by the Sun at one time, which halves the total solar irradiance.
Energy from sunlight is not spread evenly over Earth. One hemisphere is always dark, receiving no solar radiation at all. On the daylight side, only the point directly under the Sun receives full-intensity solar radiation. From the equator to the poles, the Sun’ rays meet Earth at smaller and smaller angles, and the light gets spread over larger and larger surface areas (red lines). (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon.)
In addition, the total solar irradiance is the maximum power the Sun can deliver to a surface that is perpendicular to the path of incoming light. Because the Earth is a sphere, only areas near the equator at midday come close to being perpendicular to the path of incoming light. Everywhere else, the light comes in at an angle. The progressive decrease in the angle of solar illumination with increasing latitude reduces the average solar irradiance by an additional one-half.
Averaged over the entire planet, the amount of sunlight arriving at the top of Earth’s atmosphere is only one-fourth of the total solar irradiance, or approximately 340 watts per square meter.
When the flow of incoming solar energy is balanced by an equal flow of heat to space, Earth is in radiative equilibrium, and global temperature is relatively stable. Anything that increases or decreases the amount of incoming or outgoing energy disturbs Earth’s radiative equilibrium; global temperatures must rise or fall in response.
Heating Imbalances
Three hundred forty watts per square meter of incoming solar power is a global average; solar illumination varies in space and time. The annual amount of incoming solar energy varies considerably from tropical latitudes to polar latitudes. At middle and high latitudes, it also varies considerably from season to season.
If the Earth’s axis of rotation were vertical with respect to the path of its orbit around the Sun, the size of the heating imbalance between equator and the poles would be the same year round, and the seasons we experience would not occur. Instead Earth’s axis is tilted off vertical by about 23 degrees. As the Earth orbits the Sun, the tilt causes one hemisphere and then the other to receive more direct sunlight and to have longer days.
The total energy received each day at the top of the atmosphere depends on latitude. The highest daily amounts of incoming energy (pale pink) occur at high latitudes in summer, when days are long, rather than at the equator. In winter, some polar latitudes receive no light at all (black). The Southern Hemisphere receives more energy during December (southern summer) than the Northern Hemisphere does in June (northern summer) because Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle and Earth is slightly closer to the Sun during that part of its orbit. Total energy received ranges from 0 (during polar winter) to about 50 (during polar summer) megajoules per square meter per day.
In the “summer hemisphere,” the combination of more direct sunlight and longer days means the pole can receive more incoming sunlight than the tropics, but in the winter hemisphere, it gets none. Even though illumination increases at the poles in the summer, bright white snow and sea ice reflect a significant portion of the incoming light, reducing the potential solar heating.
The amount of sunlight the Earth absorbs depends on the reflectivness of the atmosphere and the ground surface. This satellite map shows the amount of solar radiation (watts per square meter) reflected during September 2008. Along the equator, clouds reflected a large proportion of sunlight, while the pale sands of the Sahara caused the high reflectivness in North Africa. Neither pole is receiving much incoming sunlight at this time of year, so they reflect little energy even though both are ice-covered. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)
The differences in reflectivness (albedo) and solar illumination at different latitudes lead to net heating imbalances throughout the Earth system. At any place on Earth, the net heating is the difference between the amount of incoming sunlight and the amount heat radiated by the Earth back to space. In the tropics there is a net energy surplus because the amount of sunlight absorbed is larger than the amount of heat radiated. In the polar regions, however, there is an annual energy deficit because the amount of heat radiated to space is larger than the amount of absorbed sunlight.
This map of net radiation (incoming sunlight minus reflected light and outgoing heat) shows global energy imbalances in September 2008, the month of an equinox. Areas around the equator absorbed about 200 watts per square meter more on average (orange and red) than they reflected or radiated. Areas near the poles reflected and/or radiated about 200 more watts per square meter (green and blue) than they absorbed. Mid-latitudes were roughly in balance. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)
The net heating imbalance between the equator and poles drives an atmospheric and oceanic circulation that climate scientists describe as a “heat engine.” (In our everyday experience, we associate the word engine with automobiles, but to a scientist, an engine is any device or system that converts energy into motion.) The climate is an engine that uses heat energy to keep the atmosphere and ocean moving. Evaporation, convection, rainfall, winds, and ocean currents are all part of the Earth’s heat engine.
References
Cahalan, R. (n.d.) Solar and Earth Radiation. Accessed December 12, 2008.
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G.A., and Tausnev, N. (2005). Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications. Science, (308) 1431-1435.
Kushnir, Y. (2000). Solar Radiation and the Earth’s Energy Balance. Published on The Climate System, complete online course material from the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Accessed December 12, 2008.
Peixoto, J., and Oort, A. (1992). Chapter 6: Radiation balance. In Physics of Climate (pp. 91-130). Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press.
Peixoto, J., and Oort, A. (1992). Chapter 14: The ocean-atmosphere heat engine. In Physics of Climate (pp. 365-400). Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press.
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 2: The global energy balance. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 9-22).
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 4: Convection. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 31-60).
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 8: The general circulation of the atmosphere. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 139-161).
Trenberth, K., Fasullo, J., Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth’s global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Principle 1b
A Balance: Energy In Needs to Equal Energy Out
When Earth emits (releases back into space) the same amount of energy as it absorbs from the sun, its energy budget is in balance, and the Earth’s average temperature remains stable.
The Earth’s climate system moves solar heat from the equator and toward the poles.
It also moves heat from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere back to space. If it didn’t, the earth would endlessly heat up. It would become like Venus, and it would be unable to support life. Read more…
A Balance: Energy In Needs to Equal Energy Out
When Earth emits (releases back into space) the same amount of energy as it absorbs from the sun, its energy budget is in balance, and the Earth’s average temperature remains stable. In other words, energy in equals energy out.
The Earth’s climate system moves solar heat from the equator and toward the poles.
It also moves heat from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere back to space. If it didn’t, the earth would endlessly heat up. It would become like Venus, and it would be unable to support life.
When the flow of incoming solar energy is balanced by an equal flow of heat back into space, Earth is in a kind of equilibrium—scientists call it a “radiative equilibrium”—and the global temperature is relatively stable.
Anything that increases or decreases the amount of incoming or outgoing energy disturbs Earth’s radiative equilibrium and global temperatures will rise or fall in response.
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Earth’s Energy Budget
by Rebecca Lindsey
January 14, 2009
Note: Determining exact values for energy flows in the Earth system is an area of ongoing climate research. Different estimates exist, and all estimates have some uncertainty. Estimates come from satellite observations, ground-based observations, and numerical weather models. The numbers in this article rely most heavily on direct satellite observations of reflected sunlight and thermal infrared energy radiated by the atmosphere and the surface.
Earth’s heat engine does more than simply move heat from one part of the surface to another; it also moves heat from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere back to space. This flow of incoming and outgoing energy is Earth’s energy budget. For Earth’s temperature to be stable over long periods of time, incoming energy and outgoing energy have to be equal. In other words, the energy budget at the top of the atmosphere must balance. This state of balance is called radiative equilibrium.
About 29 percent of the solar energy that arrives at the top of the atmosphere is reflected back to space by clouds, atmospheric particles, or bright ground surfaces like sea ice and snow. This energy plays no role in Earth’s climate system. About 23 percent of incoming solar energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by water vapor, dust, and ozone, and 48 percent passes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by the surface. Thus, about 71 percent of the total incoming solar energy is absorbed by the Earth system.
Of the 340 watts per square meter of solar energy that falls on the Earth, 29% is reflected back into space, primarily by clouds, but also by other bright surfaces and the atmosphere itself. About 23% of incoming energy is absorbed in the atmosphere by atmospheric gases, dust, and other particles. The remaining 48% is absorbed at the surface. (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon. Astronaut photograph ISS013-E-8948.)
When matter absorbs energy, the atoms and molecules that make up the material become excited; they move around more quickly. The increased movement raises the material’s temperature. If matter could only absorb energy, then the temperature of the Earth would be like the water level in a sink with no drain where the faucet runs continuously.
Temperature doesn’t infinitely rise, however, because atoms and molecules on Earth are not just absorbing sunlight, they are also radiating thermal infrared energy (heat). The amount of heat a surface radiates is proportional to the fourth power of its temperature. If temperature doubles, radiated energy increases by a factor of 16 (2 to the 4th power). If the temperature of the Earth rises, the planet rapidly emits an increasing amount of heat to space. This large increase in heat loss in response to a relatively smaller increase in temperature—referred to as radiative cooling—is the primary mechanism that prevents runaway heating on Earth.
Absorbed sunlight is balanced by heat radiated from Earth’s surface and atmosphere. This satellite map shows the distribution of thermal infrared radiation emitted by Earth in September 2008. Most heat escaped from areas just north and south of the equator, where the surface was warm, but there were few clouds. Along the equator, persistent clouds prevented heat from escaping. Likewise, the cold poles radiated little heat. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)
The atmosphere and the surface of the Earth together absorb 71 percent of incoming solar radiation, so together, they must radiate that much energy back to space for the planet’s average temperature to remain stable. However, the relative contribution of the atmosphere and the surface to each process (absorbing sunlight versus radiating heat) is asymmetric. The atmosphere absorbs 23 percent of incoming sunlight while the surface absorbs 48. The atmosphere radiates heat equivalent to 59 percent of incoming sunlight; the surface radiates only 12 percent. In other words, most solar heating happens at the surface, while most radiative cooling happens in the atmosphere. How does this reshuffling of energy between the surface and atmosphere happen?
Surface Energy Budget
To understand how the Earth’s climate system balances the energy budget, we have to consider processes occurring at the three levels: (1) the surface of the Earth, where most solar heating takes place; (2) the edge of Earth’s atmosphere, where sunlight enters the system; and (3) the atmosphere in between. At each level, the amount of incoming and outgoing energy, or net flux, must be equal.
Remember that about 29 percent of incoming sunlight is reflected back to space by bright particles in the atmosphere or bright ground surfaces, which leaves about 71 percent to be absorbed by the atmosphere (23 percent) and the land (48 percent). For the energy budget at Earth’s surface to balance, processes on the ground must get rid of the 48 percent of incoming solar energy that the ocean and land surfaces absorb. Energy leaves the surface through three processes: evaporation, convection, and emission of thermal infrared energy.
The surface absorbs about 48% of incoming sunlight. Three processes remove an equivalent amount of energy from the Earth’s surface: evaporation (25%), convection (5%), and thermal infrared radiation, or heat (net 17%). (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon. Photograph ©2006 Cyron.)
About 25 percent of incoming solar energy leaves the surface through evaporation. Liquid water molecules absorb incoming solar energy, and they change phase from liquid to gas. The heat energy that it took to evaporate the water is latent in the random motions of the water vapor molecules as they spread through the atmosphere. When the water vapor molecules condense back into rain, the latent heat is released to the surrounding atmosphere. Evaporation from tropical oceans and the subsequent release of latent heat are the primary drivers of the atmospheric heat engine .
An additional 5 percent of incoming solar energy leaves the surface through convection. Air in direct contact with the sun-warmed ground becomes warm and buoyant. In general, the atmosphere is warmer near the surface and colder at higher altitudes, and under these conditions, warm air rises, shuttling heat away from the surface.
Finally, a net of about 17 percent of incoming solar energy leaves the surface as thermal infrared energy (heat) radiated by atoms and molecules on the surface. This net upward flux results from two large but opposing fluxes: heat flowing upward from the surface to the atmosphere (117%) and heat flowing downward from the atmosphere to the ground (100%). (These competing fluxes are part of the greenhouse effect.)
The Atmosphere’s Energy Budget
Just as the incoming and outgoing energy at the Earth’s surface must balance, the flow of energy into the atmosphere must be balanced by an equal flow of energy out of the atmosphere and back to space. Satellite measurements indicate that the atmosphere radiates thermal infrared energy equivalent to 59 percent of the incoming solar energy. If the atmosphere is radiating this much, it must be absorbing that much. Where does that energy come from?
Clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and ozone directly absorb 23 percent of incoming solar energy. Evaporation and convection transfer 25 and 5 percent of incoming solar energy from the surface to the atmosphere. These three processes transfer the equivalent of 53 percent of the incoming solar energy to the atmosphere. If total inflow of energy must match the outgoing thermal infrared observed at the top of the atmosphere, where does the remaining fraction (about 5-6 percent) come from? The remaining energy comes from the Earth’s surface.
The Natural Greenhouse Effect
Just as the major atmospheric gases (oxygen and nitrogen) are transparent to incoming sunlight, they are also transparent to outgoing thermal infrared. However, water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and other trace gases are opaque to many wavelengths of thermal infrared energy. Remember that the surface radiates the net equivalent of 17 percent of incoming solar energy as thermal infrared. However, the amount that directly escapes to space is only about 12 percent of incoming solar energy. The remaining fraction—a net 5-6 percent of incoming solar energy—is transferred to the atmosphere when greenhouse gas molecules absorb thermal infrared energy radiated by the surface.
The atmosphere radiates the equivalent of 59% of incoming sunlight back to space as thermal infrared energy, or heat. Where does the atmosphere get its energy? The atmosphere directly absorbs about 23% of incoming sunlight, and the remaining energy is transferred from the Earth’s surface by evaporation (25%), convection (5%), and thermal infrared radiation (a net of 5-6%). The remaining thermal infrared energy from the surface (12%) passes through the atmosphere and escapes to space. (NASA illustration by Robert Simmon. Astronaut photograph ISS017-E-13859.)
When greenhouse gas molecules absorb thermal infrared energy, their temperature rises. Like coals from a fire that are warm but not glowing, greenhouse gases then radiate an increased amount of thermal infrared energy in all directions. Heat radiated upward continues to encounter greenhouse gas molecules; those molecules absorb the heat, their temperature rises, and the amount of heat they radiate increases. At an altitude of roughly 5-6 kilometers, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the overlying atmosphere is so small that heat can radiate freely to space.
Because greenhouse gas molecules radiate heat in all directions, some of it spreads downward and ultimately comes back into contact with the Earth’s surface, where it is absorbed. The temperature of the surface becomes warmer than it would be if it were heated only by direct solar heating. This supplemental heating of the Earth’s surface by the atmosphere is the natural greenhouse effect.
Effect on Surface Temperature
The natural greenhouse effect raises the Earth’s surface temperature to about 15 degrees Celsius on average—more than 30 degrees warmer than it would be if it didn’t have an atmosphere. The amount of heat radiated from the atmosphere to the surface (sometimes called “back radiation”) is equivalent to 100 percent of the incoming solar energy. The Earth’s surface responds to the “extra” (on top of direct solar heating) energy by raising its temperature.
On average, 340 watts per square meter of solar energy arrives at the top of the atmosphere. Earth returns an equal amount of energy back to space by reflecting some incoming light and by radiating heat (thermal infrared energy). Most solar energy is absorbed at the surface, while most heat is radiated back to space by the atmosphere. Earth's average surface temperature is maintained by two large, opposing energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the ground (right)—the greenhouse effect. NASA illustration by Robert Simmon, adapted from Trenberth et al. 2009, using CERES flux estimates provided by Norman Loeb.)
Why doesn’t the natural greenhouse effect cause a runaway increase in surface temperature? Remember that the amount of energy a surface radiates always increases faster than its temperature rises—outgoing energy increases with the fourth power of temperature. As solar heating and “back radiation” from the atmosphere raise the surface temperature, the surface simultaneously releases an increasing amount of heat—equivalent to about 117 percent of incoming solar energy. The net upward heat flow, then, is equivalent to 17 percent of incoming sunlight (117 percent up minus 100 percent down).
Some of the heat escapes directly to space, and the rest is transferred to higher and higher levels of the atmosphere, until the energy leaving the top of the atmosphere matches the amount of incoming solar energy. Because the maximum possible amount of incoming sunlight is fixed by the solar constant (which depends only on Earth’s distance from the Sun and very small variations during the solar cycle), the natural greenhouse effect does not cause a runaway increase in surface temperature on Earth.
References
Cahalan, R. (n.d.) Solar and Earth Radiation. Accessed December 12, 2008.
Hansen, J., Nazarenko, L., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Willis, J., Del Genio, A., Koch, D., Lacis, A., Lo, K., Menon, S., Novakov, T., Perlwitz, J., Russell, G., Schmidt, G.A., and Tausnev, N. (2005). Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications. Science, (308) 1431-1435.
Kushnir, Y. (2000). Solar Radiation and the Earth’s Energy Balance. Published on The Climate System, complete online course material from the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Accessed December 12, 2008.
Peixoto, J., and Oort, A. (1992). Chapter 6: Radiation balance. In Physics of Climate (pp. 91-130). Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press.
Peixoto, J., and Oort, A. (1992). Chapter 14: The ocean-atmosphere heat engine. In Physics of Climate (pp. 365-400). Woodbury, NY: American Institute of Physics Press.
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 2: The global energy balance. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 9-22).
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 4: Convection. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 31-60).
Marshall, J., and Plumb, R.A. (2008). Chapter 8: The general circulation of the atmosphere. In Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics: an Introductory Text (pp. 139-161).
Trenberth, K., Fasullo, J., Kiehl, J. (2009). Earth’s global energy budget. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Principle 1c
The Reason for the Seasons
The seasons are caused by the tilt of the Earth (remember the Earth is tilted on its axis).
When the northern hemisphere where we live is tilted toward the sun, we have summer.
When it is tilted away from the sun, we have winter.
The tilt of Earth’s axis relative to its orbit around the Sun results in predictable changes in the length of daylight and the amount of sunlight received at any latitude throughout a year. We call these changes “seasons” — spring, summer, fall, and winter. Read more…
The Reason for the Seasons
The seasons are caused by the tilt of the Earth (remember the Earth is tilted on its axis).
When the northern hemisphere where we live is tilted toward the sun, we have summer.
When it is tilted away from the sun, we have winter.
The tilt of Earth’s axis relative to its orbit around the Sun results in predictable changes in the length of daylight and the amount of sunlight received at any latitude throughout a year. We call these changes “seasons” — spring, summer, fall, and winter.
This is how it works: As the Earth travels around the Sun, it remains tipped in the same direction, toward the star Polaris (the north star).
This means that sometimes the northern half of the Earth is pointing toward the Sun (summer), and sometimes it is pointing slightly away (winter).
The times when the Earth's orbit is tilted most toward or away from the Sun are called solstices, and they mark the seasons of summer and winter.
When the northern hemisphere is tilted toward the Sun, the southern hemisphere is tilted away. This explains why the hemispheres have opposite seasons — when it is summer in Montana, it is winter in Argentina and Australia and vice versa.
Halfway between the solstices, the Earth is neither tilted directly toward nor directly away from the Sun. At these times, called the equinoxes, both hemispheres receive roughly equal amounts of sunlight. Equinoxes mark the seasons of autumn and spring.
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In the images above, look at how North America is angled away from the sun in December (winter) and how it is angled toward the sun in June (summer).
Earth-Sun relationships and insolation
Published: October 11, 2006
Updated: February 18, 2011, 4:42 pm
Author: Michael Pidwirny
Figure 1: Effect of angle on the area that intercepts an incoming beam of radiation. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Yearly changes in the position of the Earth's axis cause the location of the sun to wander 47° across our skies. Changes in the location of the sun have a direct effect on the intensity of solar radiation. The intensity of solar radiation is largely a function of the angle of incidence (the angle at which the sun's rays strike the Earth's surface). If the sun is positioned directly overhead or 90° from the horizon, the incoming radiation strikes the surface of the Earth at right angles and is most intense. If the sun is 45° above the horizon, the incoming radiation strikes the Earth's surface at an angle. This causes the rays to be spread out over a larger surface area reducing the intensity of the radiation. Figure 1 models the effect of changing the angle of incidence from 90 to 45°. As illustrated, the lower sun angle (45°) causes the radiation to be received over a much larger surface area. This surface area is approximately 40% greater than the area covered by an angle of 90°. The lower angle also reduces the intensity of the incoming rays by 30%.
The yearly changes in the position of the Earth's axis relative to the plane of the ecliptic also causes seasonal variations in day length to all locations outside of the equator. Longest days occur during the summer solstice for locations north of the equator and on the winter solstice for locations in the Southern Hemisphere.
The equator experiences equal day and night on every day of the year. Day and night is also of equal length for all Earth locations on the autumnal and vernal equinoxes. Days are longer than nights in the Northern Hemisphere from the March equinox to the September equinox. Between the September to March equinox days are shorter than nights in the Northern Hemisphere. The opposite is true in the Southern Hemisphere. The seasonal (winter to summer) variation in day length increases with increasing latitude.
The most extreme variations in radiation received in the Northern Hemisphere occur at 90° North. During the summer solstice this location receives more potential incoming solar radiation than any other location. At this time the sun never sets. In fact, it remains at an altitude of 23.5° above the horizon for the whole day. From September 22 (autumnal equinox) to March 21, (vernal equinox) no radiation is received at 90° North. During this period the sun slips below the horizon as the northern axis of the Earth becomes tilted away from the sun.
Earth-Sun geometry
Published: October 11, 2006
Updated: March 25, 2013, 2:20 pm
Author: Michael Pidwirny
Figure 1. Position of the equinoxes, solstices, aphelion, and perihelion relative to the Earth's orbit around the Sun.
Earth Rotation and Revolution
The term 'Earth rotation' refers to the spinning of the Earth on its axis. One rotation takes exactly twenty-four hours and is called a “mean solar day”. If you could look down at the Earth's North Pole from space you would notice that the direction of rotation is counterclockwise. The opposite is true if you viewed the Earth from the South Pole.
The orbit of the Earth around the sun is called Earth revolution. This celestial motion takes 365 1/4 days to complete one cycle. Further, the Earth's orbit around the sun is not circular, but elliptical. An elliptical orbit causes the Earth's distance from the sun to vary annually. However, this phenomenon does not cause the seasons.
It doesn’t cause the seasons, but this annual variation in the distance from the sun does influence the amount of solar radiation intercepted by the Earth by approximately 6%. On January 3rd, perihelion, the Earth is closest to the sun (147.5 million kilometers) (Figure 1). The Earth is farthest from the sun on July 4th, or aphelion (Figure 1). The average distance of the Earth from the sun over a one year period is 150 million kilometers.
Tilt of the Earth's Axis
Figure 2: Annual change in the position of the Earth in its revolution around the sun. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
The Earth's axis is not perpendicular to the plane of the ecliptic, but inclined at a fixed angle of 23.5°. Moreover, the northern end of the Earth's axis always points to the same place in space (North Star). Figure 3 shows an animation of the Earth revolving around the sun. In this animation the Earth's axis is colored red. Note that the angle of the Earth's axis in relation to the plane of the ecliptic remains unchanged. However, the relative position of the Earth's axis to the sun does change during this cycle (Figure 2). This circumstance causes the seasons, by controlling the intensity and duration of sunlight received by locations on the Earth. It is also responsible for the annual changes in the height of the sun above the horizon.
Figure 3: Earth revolution animation. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Figure 2 shows the annual change in the position of the Earth in its revolution around the sun. In the graphic, we are viewing the Earth from a position in space that is above the North Pole (yellow dot) at the summer solstice, the winter solstice, and the two equinoxes. Note how the position of the North Pole on the Earth's surface does not change. However, its position relative to the sun does change and this shift is responsible for the seasons. The red circle on each of the Earths represents the Arctic Circle (66.5° N). During the summer solstice, the area above the Arctic Circle is experiencing 24 hours of daylight because the North Pole is tilted 23.5° toward the sun. The Arctic Circle experiences 24 hours of night when the North Pole is tilted 23.5° away from the sun in the winter solstice. During the two equinoxes, the circle of illumination cuts through the polar axis and all locations on the Earth experience 12 hours of day and night.
On June 21 or 22, the summer solstice, the Earth is positioned in its orbit so that the North Pole is leaning 23.5° toward the sun (Figures 2 & 4). During the summer solstice, all locations North of the equator have day lengths greater than twelve hours, while all locations South of the equator have day lengths less than twelve hours. On December 21 or 22, the winter solstice, the Earth is positioned so that the South Pole is leaning 23.5° toward the sun (Figures 2 & 4). During the winter solstice, all locations North of the equator have day lengths less than twelve hours, while all locations South of the equator have day lengths greater than twelve hours.
On September 22 or 23, the autumnal equinox, neither pole is tilted toward the sun (Figures 2, 5). March 20 or 21 marks the arrival of the spring or vernal equinox when once again the poles are not tilted toward the sun. Day lengths on both of these days, regardless of latitude, are exactly 12 hours.
Figure 4: During the summer solstice the Earth's North Pole is tilted 23.5° towards the sun relative to the circle of illumination. This phenomenon keeps all places above a latitude of 66.5° N in 24 hours of sunlight, while locations below a latitude of 66.5° S are in darkness. The North Pole is tilted 23.5° away from the sun relative to the circle of illumination during the winter solstice. On this date, all places above a latitude of 66.5° N are now in darkness, while locations below a latitude of 66.5° S receive 24 hours of daylight. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Figure 5: During the equinoxes, the axis of the Earth is not tilted toward or away from the sun and the circle of illumination cuts through the poles. This situation does not suggest that the 23.5° tilt of the Earth no longer exists. The vantage point of this graphic shows that the Earth's axis is inclined 23.5° toward the viewer for both dates (see Figure 2). The red circles shown in the graphic are the Arctic Circle. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Axis Tilt and Solar Altitude
The annual change in the relative position of the Earth's axis in relationship to the sun causes the height of the sun (solar altitude) to vary in our skies. The total variation in maximum solar altitude for any location on the Earth over a one year period is 47° (2 x 23.5 = 47). For example, at 50° North, maximum solar altitude varies from 63.5° on the summer solstice to 16.5° on the winter solstice (Figure 6). Maximum solar height at the equator goes from 66.5° above the northern end of the horizon during the summer solstice, to directly overhead on the fall equinox, and then down to 66.5° above the southern end of the horizon during the summer solstice (Figure 7).
Figure 6: Variations in solar altitude at solar noon for 50° North during the summer solstice, equinox, and winter solstice. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Figure 7: Variations in solar altitude at solar noon for the equator during the summer solstice, equinox, and winter solstice. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
The location on the Earth where the sun is directly overhead at solar noon is known as the subsolar point. The subsolar point occurs on the equator during the equinoxes (Figure 8). During the summer solstice, the subsolar point moves to the Tropic of Cancer because at this time the North Pole is tilted 23.5° toward the sun. The subsolar point is located at the Tropic of Capricorn on the winter solstice. On this date, the South Pole is now tilted toward the sun (Figures 2 and 4).
Figure 8: Relationship of maximum sun height to latitude for the equinox (left) and summer solstice (right). (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Figure 8 shows the relationship of maximum sun height to the latitude for the equinox (left) and summer solstice (right). The red values on the right of the globes are maximum solar altitudes at solar noon. Black numbers on the left indicate the location of the equator, Tropic of Cancer (23.5° N), Tropic of Capricorn (23.5° S), Arctic Circle (66.5° N), and the Antarctic Circle (66.5° S). The location of the North and South Poles are also identified. During the equinox, the equator is the location on the Earth with a sun angle of 90° for solar noon. Note how maximum sun height declines with latitude as you move away from the equator. For each degree of latitude traveled, maximum sun height decreases by the same amount. At equinox, you can also calculate the noon angle by subtracting the location's latitude from 90. During the summer solstice, the sun is now directly overhead at the Tropic of Cancer. All locations above this location have maximum sun heights that are 23.5° higher from the equinox situation. Places above the Arctic Circle are in 24 hours of daylight. Below the Tropic of Cancer the noon angle of the sun drops one degree in height for each degree of latitude traveled. At the Antarctic Circle, maximum sun height becomes 0° and locations south of this point on the Earth are in 24 hours of darkness.
Principle 1d
The Reason for Ice Ages
Gradual changes in Earth’s rotation and orbit around the Sun change the intensity of sunlight received in our planet’s polar and equatorial regions.
For at least the last 1 million years, these changes occurred in 100,000-year cycles that produced ice ages and the shorter warm periods between them.
In the 1910s, a mathematician named Milankovitch demonstrated how Earth's orbital variations play a role in Ice Ages and other climate variations.
Milankovitch cycles, such as precession of the equinoxes (23,000 years), obliquity (41,000 years) and eccentricity (100,000 and 400,000 year periods) affect the amount of sunlight that radiates to Earth. Read more…
The Reason for Ice Ages
Gradual changes in Earth’s rotation and orbit around the Sun change the intensity of sunlight received in our planet’s polar and equatorial regions.
For at least the last 1 million years, these changes occurred in 100,000-year cycles that produced ice ages and the shorter warm periods between them.
In the 1910s, a mathematician named Milankovitch demonstrated how Earth's orbital variations play a role in Ice Ages and other climate variations.
Milankovitch cycles, such as precession of the equinoxes (23,000 years), obliquity (41,000 years) and eccentricity (100,000 and 400,000 year periods) affect the amount of sunlight that radiates to Earth.
Milankovitch cycles are measured using data derived from marine sediments, landforms, loess (fine, windblown silt), cave features, and astronomical observations and calculations. Understanding the Milankovitch cycles helps with reconstructing past climate variability at 100,000 year and longer time scales.
At the present time, the Milankovitch cycles are at a point that place the Earth in an interglacial — a warm period of relatively stable climate. This warm period is predicted to continue for tens of thousands of years, but is not expected to generate warmer climates over the period of decades. For this reason, recent climatic changes are not considered to be attributable to the natural cycles described by Milankovitch.
Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over time.
Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse is exaggerated for visualization. Most orbits in the Solar System have a much smaller eccentricity, making them nearly circular.
Milankovitch cycles
Published: July 7, 2010
Updated: August 1, 2012
Author: Jeffrey Lee
Milankovitch cycles refer to long term variations in the orbit of the Earth that cause changes in climate over periods hundred of thousands of years and are related to ice age cycles. Once Isaac Newton described his laws of motion and of gravity, the orbit of each planet became predictable, not only under the influence the Sun, but the much weaker influences of all the other planets and the Moon as well.
Milutin Milankovitch did not discover the cycles, nor was he the first to calculate their changes. What he did do is improve on the methods of calculating them and relating them to Earth’s climatic variations. Below the graphic illustrating the Milankovitch cycles is a brief description of each:
Milankovitch cycles. Source: UCAR
1. Precession (also called Precession of the Equinoxes)
the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon on Earth’s equatorial bulge causes the poles to slowly wobble. Over 25,800 years, the polar axis traces out a circle with respect to the stars.
Right now when you look out at the stars at night, the North Pole points to Polaris, and all other stars visible in the Northern Hemisphere appear to rotate around that star in the night sky. But in one-half cycle, or 12,900 years, the North Pole will point to the star Vega, which is forty-seven degrees away from Polaris. And in another 12,900 years, the North Pole will be back to Polaris.
Astronomers in 4,000 BC, for example, noted that the axis pointed to the handle of the Big Dipper (part of the constellation Ursa Major), not Polaris, which is the end of the handle of the Little Dipper (part of the constellation Ursa Minor). An effect of this change is that the time of year that Earth is closest to the Sun, called perihelion, varies through the cycle.
Now perihelion is January 3, so the Northern Hemisphere has slightly milder winters and the Southern Hemisphere has slightly cooler winters. And, conversely, summers are a bit cooler in the North and warmer in the South. In 12,900 years, the North will have colder winters because Earth will be furthest from the Sun (aphelion) in January.
Another aspect of the precession is the length of winter and summer. Because the Sun is not at the center of the orbital ellipse (discussed in the next paragraph), it currently takes seven more days for Earth to travel from the vernal equinox to the autumnal equinox than from the autumnal to the vernal. In other words, the Northern Hemisphere winter now is shorter than the Southern Hemisphere winter. In 12,900 years, the North will have longer winters and shorter summers.
2. Eccentricity of Orbit
Earth travels around the Sun along a flat surface called the plane of the ecliptic, called that because eclipses occur when the Moon intersects this plane. The path taken along this plane is almost a circle, but not quite. It is elliptical, with the Sun just off center as one ‘foci’ of the ellipse. Gravitational pull of other planets causes the path to become slightly more or slightly less elliptical. In other words, it becomes more or less of a flattened circle. Venus, because it is close to Earth, and Jupiter, because it is so massive, have the greatest effect on the eccentricity. There are peaks in eccentricity every 95,000 years, but superimposed on those are larger peaks at 125,000 and 400,000 years. When the orbit is more elliptical, the perihelion is closer to the Sun and the aphelion is farther away than when the orbit is more circular.
3. Axial Tilt (also called Obliquity)
The axis of rotation intersects the plane of the ecliptic at an angle and that angle changes over time. This change is caused by the fact that the Moon’s orbital path is not precisely along Earth’s plane of the ecliptic and so the gravitational attraction of the Moon varies in direction over time. The angle of axial tilt affects the difference between winter and summer in each hemisphere, especially at higher latitudes. Not only does the axial tilt vary over time, but the plane of the ecliptic varies, too. Taking the two into consideration, the obliquity of the axis varies on a 41,000 year cycle and varies from 22.1° to 24.5° from a line perpendicular to the plane of the ecliptic, with the current value at about 23.44°.
Milankovitch cycles over the past 1 000 000 years. Source: Global Warming Art
Soon after the existence of an ice age had been proposed, scientists sought an explanation of their cause. In 1842, Frenchman Joseph Alphonse Adhémar suggested that the varying lengths of winter and summer, an effect of the precession, causes ice to accumulate in the hemisphere with the longer winter. He used the massive ice sheet in Antarctica as evidence, since the Southern Hemisphere currently has longer winter and shorter summer.
Scotsman James Croll combined the eccentricity of the orbit and the precession and in the 1860s and 1870s presented his ideas on the effects of the cycles and how they might influence climate, especially the colder winters when they correspond with the aphelion. In fact, what are typically called ‘Milankovitch Cycles’ are sometimes referred to as ‘Croll-Milankovitch Cycles.’
Milankovitch gets most of the credit for relating the cycles to ice ages because he incorporated all of the pertinent cycles, dealt with them in much greater mathematical precision and showed much more thoroughly how they affect climate. He, at Wladimir Köppen and Alfred Wegener’s suggestion, investigated the role of cooler summers in instigating ice ages. Milankovitch Cycles clearly play an important role in the comings and goings of ice sheets, but the details of just how this happens are far from well understood.
Further Reading
Milankovitch, M. 1941. Canon of Insolation and the Ice-Age Problem. Israel Program for Scientific Translations. Jerusalem (1969).
Muller, Richard A. and MacDonald, Gordon J. 2000. Ice Ages and Astronomical Causes: Data, spectral analysis and mechanisms. Springer. London.
Raymo, Maureen E. and Huybers, Peter. 2008. Unlocking the Mysteries of the Ice Ages. Nature 451: 284-285.
Citation
Lee, J. (2012). Milankovitch cycles. Retrieved from http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/154612
Orbital Variations
Changes in orbital eccentricity affect the Earth-sun distance. Currently, a difference of only 3 percent (5 million kilometers) exists between closest approach (perihelion), which occurs on or about January 3, and furthest departure (aphelion), which occurs on or about July 4. This difference in distance amounts to about a 6 percent increase in incoming solar radiation (insolation) from July to January. The shape of the Earth’s orbit changes from being elliptical (high eccentricity) to being nearly circular (low eccentricity) in a cycle that takes between 90,000 and 100,000 years. When the orbit is highly elliptical, the amount of insolation received at perihelion would be on the order of 20 to 30 percent greater than at aphelion, resulting in a substantially different climate from what we experience today.
The eccentricity of the Earth's orbit changes slowly over time from nearly zero to 0.07. As the orbit gets more eccentric (oval) the difference between the distance from the Sun to the Earth at perihelion (closest approach) and aphelion (furthest away) becomes greater and greater. Note that the Sun is not at the center of the Earth's orbital ellipse, rather it is at one of focal points.
Note: The eccentricty of the orbit shown in the lower image is a highly exaggerated 0.5. Even the maximum eccentricity of the Earth's orbit—0.07—it would be impossible to show at the resolution of a web page. Even so, at the current eccentricity of .017, the Earth is 5 million kilometers closer to Sun at perihelion than at aphelion. (Images by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC)
Obliquity (change in axial tilt)
As the axial tilt increases, the seasonal contrast increases so that winters are colder and summers are warmer in both hemispheres. Today, the Earth's axis is tilted 23.5 degrees from the plane of its orbit around the sun. But this tilt changes. During a cycle that averages about 40,000 years, the tilt of the axis varies between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees. Because this tilt changes, the seasons as we know them can become exaggerated. More tilt means more severe seasons—warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt means less severe seasons—cooler summers and milder winters. It's the cool summers that are thought to allow snow and ice to last from year-to-year in high latitudes, eventually building up into massive ice sheets. There are positive feedbacks in the climate system as well, because an Earth covered with more snow reflects more of the sun's energy into space, causing additional cooling.
The change in the tilt of the Earth's axis (obliquity) effects the magnitude of seasonal change. At higher tilts the seasons are more extreme, and at lower tilts they are milder. The current axial tilt is 23.5°. Image by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC)
Precession
Changes in axial precession alter the dates of perihelion and aphelion, and therefore increase the seasonal contrast in one hemisphere and decrease the seasonal contrast in the other hemisphere.
Precession—the change in orientation of the Earth's rotational axis alters the orientation of the Earth with respect to perihelion and aphelion. If a hemisphere is pointed towards the sun at perihelion, that hemisphere will be pointing away at aphelion, and the difference in seasons will be more extreme. This seasonal effect is reversed for the opposite hemisphere. Currently, northern summer occurs near aphelion. (Image by Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC)
Principle 1e
Changes in the Sun’s Energy Output
A significant increase or decrease in the Sun’s energy output would cause Earth to heat up or cool down.
Satellite measurements taken over the past 30 years show that the Sun’s energy output has changed only slightly and in both directions.
These changes in the Sun’s energy are thought to be too small to be the cause of the recent warming observed on Earth. Read more…
Changes in the Sun’s Energy Output
A significant increase or decrease in the Sun’s energy output would cause Earth to heat up or cool down.
Satellite measurements taken over the past 30 years show that the Sun’s energy output has changed only slightly and in both directions.
These changes in the Sun’s energy are thought to be too small to be the cause of the recent warming observed on Earth.
Could variations in the amount of energy from the sun alter climate? The short answer is yes. The concept that long-term variations over thousands and millions of years of solar irradiance has affected climate is born out in research. But scientists studying shorter-term variations, including the 22 year solar cycle of solar activity measured between a minimum and maximum period, have determined that the amount of extra solar energy reaching Earth is relatively small, not enough to account for recent climate change.
As shown in the figure below, direct satellite measurements of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth since the late 1970s show no net increase in the Sun’s output (in fact, there has been a slight decrease), while at the same time global surface temperatures have increased. Furthermore, most up-to-date climate models – including those used by the IPCC and researchers at Cornell University – include the effects of the sun’s variable brightness in their calculations. These climate models can’t reproduce the observed temperature trends over the past century or more without including a rise in human-emitted greenhouse gases.
click image to enlarge
Principle 1f
Local Relevance
Great Plains or Great Desert? A Sea of Dunes Lies in Wait
Solar Variations, Along with Other Astronomical Factors, Can Influence Long-term Oscillations in the Ocean-Atmosphere Climate System, and These can Cause Major Droughts
Scientists who study ancient climates are finding that droughts, floods and severe cold far surpassing anything in the modern era have punctuated the 10,000 years since the last ice age.
The discovery has surprised experts because the climate of this most recent period in earth history, called the Holocene, has long been considered relatively stable and serene, and its comparative tranquillity has long been thought essential to the development of civilization.
Now, paleoclimatologists are finding in case after case that the Holocene climate has been more volatile than had been believed. The disturbing implication is that these natural catastrophes could come again at any time, quite apart from any change in climate that might result from emissions of waste industrial gases that can trap heat.
"We like to think of whatever climate we're in as normal," said Dr. Daniel Muhs, a geologist with the United States Geological Survey in Denver, "and our natural assumption is that it will keep on that way -- that's a very tenuous assumption."
It turns out that the climate of the last century and a half, the brief period in which people have been measuring temperature and precipitation, has indeed been relatively placid. These comparatively calm recent decades have nevertheless had their own ups and downs, like the drought that struck the southern Great Plains in the 1930's, creating the Dust Bowl.
That drought, modern America's worst, stripped farms of their topsoil after farming had exposed the soil to wind erosion, touching off the mass migration of the Okies to California. The relentless wind "cried and whimpered over the fallen corn" while people huddled inside, tying handkerchiefs over their noses and donning goggles to go out, John Steinbeck wrote in "The Grapes of Wrath."
But according to new evidence presented by Dr. Muhs, there have been several times during the Holocene when even more severe droughts have converted other, larger stretches of the Great Plains to seas of windblown sand dunes like those of the Sahara.
In 1810, in one of a number of historical accounts collected by Dr. Muhs and his colleagues, the explorer Zebulon Pike wrote this about parts of Kansas and Colorado: "These vast plains of the western hemisphere may become in time equally celebrated as the sandy deserts of Africa; for I saw in my route, in various places, tracts of many leagues, where the wind had thrown up the sand, in all the fanciful forms of the ocean's rolling wave, and on which not a speck of vegetable matter existed."
The dunes are still there, mostly grazed by cattle, and only a thin, fragile cover of vegetation holds them in check. In the 1930's, the dunes were on the verge of becoming active when the drought ended; that is, the vegetation was just beginning to succumb and unleash the blowing sands. Should the sands be unleashed today, Dr. Muhs said, some highways and railroads would probably be buried. Lots of grazing range would cease to exist, and much habitat, including extensive wetlands, would disappear. Stifling sand would rain onto productive agricultural fields downwind, and some dunes could migrate onto adjacent farms.
"It would be pretty catastrophic, I think," Dr. Muhs said.
The Sahara-like conditions could be touched off if predicted global warming comes to pass, according to a study by Dr. Muhs and his colleagues. Experts predict that a greenhouse world would make the Great Plains both drier and warmer, perhaps enough to reactivate the dunes. But natural forces could also do the trick: "With or without the greenhouse gases, potentially we could have this kind of effect," Dr. Muhs said.
The wet-dry variations might have been caused by long-term oscillations in the ocean-atmosphere climate system, analogous to the short-term changes typical of El Nino — the vast pool of warm water in the tropical Pacific that appears from time to time, altering regional climates around the world. That theory is bolstered, Dr. Thompson said, by core samples from Tibet that show wet-dry cycles matching those in Peru.
Adapted From: http://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/28/science/great-plains-or-great-desert-the-sea-of-dunes-lies-in-wait.html
Principle 1g
Misconceptions about this Principle
The Misconception
CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician Period so the earth should have been super hot then. Instead there was an ice age.
The misconception goes something like this: The Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today — 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot.
The Science
CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician Period but solar output was much lower, and that explains how an ice age occurred with high CO2 levels.
The science says: during the Ordovician, solar output was much lower than current levels. Consequently, CO2 levels only needed to fall below 3000 parts per million for glaciation to be possible. The latest CO2 data calculated from sediment cores show that CO2 levels fell sharply during the late Ordovician due to high rock weathering removing CO2 from the air. Thus the CO2 record during the late Ordovician is entirely consistent with the notion that CO2 is a strong driver of climate. Read more…
Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-was-higher-in-late-Ordovician.htm
The Science
CO2 was higher in the late Ordovician Period but solar output was much lower, and that explains how an ice age occurred with high CO2 levels.
The science says: during the Ordovician, solar output was much lower than current levels. Consequently, CO2 levels only needed to fall below 3000 parts per million for glaciation to be possible. The latest CO2 data calculated from sediment cores show that CO2 levels fell sharply during the late Ordovician due to high rock weathering removing CO2 from the air. Thus the CO2 record during the late Ordovician is entirely consistent with the notion that CO2 is a strong driver of climate.
An argument used against the warming effect of carbon dioxide is that millions of years ago, CO2 levels were higher during periods where large glaciers formed over the Earth's poles. This argument fails to take into account that solar output was also lower during these periods. The combined effect of sun and CO2 show good correlation with climate. The one period that until recently puzzled paleoclimatologists was the late Ordovician, around 444 million years ago. At this time, CO2 levels were very high, around 5600 parts per million (in contrast, current CO2 levels are 389 parts per million). However, glaciers were so far-reaching during the late Ordovician, it coincided with one of the largest marine mass extinction events in Earth history. How did glaciation occur with such high CO2 levels? Recent data has revealed CO2 levels at the time of the late Ordovician ice age were not that high after all.
Past studies on the Ordovician period calculated CO2 levels at 10 million year intervals. The problem with such coarse data sampling is the Ordovician ice age lasted only half a million years. To fill in the gaps, a 2009 study examined strontium isotopes in the sediment record. Strontium is produced by rock weathering, the process that removes CO2 from the air. Consequently, the ratio of strontium isotopes can be used to determine how quickly rock weathering removed CO2 from the atmosphere in the past. Using strontium levels, Young determined that during the late Ordovician, rock weathering was at high levels while volcanic activity, which adds CO2 to the atmosphere, dropped. This led to CO2 levels falling below 3000 parts per million which was low enough to initiate glaciation — the growing of ice sheets.
Thus arguments that Ordovician glaciation disproves the warming effect of CO2 are groundless. On the contrary, the CO2 record over the late Ordovician is entirely consistent with the notion that CO2 is a strong driver of climate.
Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-was-higher-in-late-Ordovician.htm
Principle 1
Quiz Yourself
To pass this quiz you will need to have read the main paragraphs for each topic of the principle. There are nine questions.
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